Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Correspondance with Geoff Sharp Oct/Nov 2010

OLdest at the bottom, most recent at top. The last one led me to do the posting on Uranus impact on Solar angular momentum.

Hey Geoff,
Try this for a wild thought. My level of ignorance makes any wild thought worth examining.
Uranus orbital period 84 years. Because it is slightly elliptical Uranus spends two periods/orbit accelerating to max velocity, and 2 periods decelerating to lower velocity. The accelerating periods will be slightly shorter in time and slightly higher in max. velocity, but all four are close to 20 years long. Then we have the J/S synodic cycle of 19.9 years. Lets assume they start in close alignment such that the first cycle corresponds to Uranus accelerating, the next to Uranus decelerating, etc. the upper beat frequency of 4 J/S cycles and one Uranus cycle is 40.8 years. Hmm. Given the difference in actual times after a few cycles the correspondance losses reenforcing effect for a few cycles and then resynchs - maybe the 40,40,100 year sequence?? I have no idea how to do the math to test this idea, but I find it intriguing.

Hello again Geoff
Ok. Be that as it may. Simply using your charts, Max AM peaks show up at intervals of 100,40,40 years, which then repeats. That's 180 years. Also the average interval between peaks is very close to 20 years, so we get every 2nd JS conjunction exerting greater AM for 2 such periods, and then the 5th one being strong. Consider the 3 trefoil loops when the SSB is at the point of max distance from the sun for each loop. Call these 3 max points A B C when they are at a high peak, and a b c when they are at a low peak. The pattern is AbCaB (all three loops have had a max) then cabcA (we have 4 lower peak distances and then back to A as a high peak). And that pattern repeats. From one max A to the next max A is 3 loops around the trefoil set. So there is no 180 year conjunction or opposition or whatever, there is just a pattern that repeats once every 3 complete circuits of the sun around the SSB back to its starting point, and the 180 years is just a product of that repetition. Ok, so looking at the trefoil peaks why do we see first, third, fifth and 10th loops strong? Why 3 circuits around the loop? I think that at least 2 other modulating effects are in play.
Also note that the loops alternate short time bottom to bottom with high peak and long time bottom to bottom with low peak. Also note that the AMP always occurs on a long low cycle, but not every long low cycle has an associated AMP. Long low cycles have a much longer transition from peak to trough (and vice versa), then do short high cycles, so something is happening that is related to velocity, or more likely acceleration. I suspect that we also have the lowest AM troughs (SSB nearest the solar center), when conjunctions are nearest common perihelion, and the highest AM peaks when they are nearest common aphelion, even if the orbits are only slightly eliptical, ie orbital eccentricity matters.
So we have at least 4 planetary orbits, in at least 2 planetary pairs, with conjunctions and oppositions, orbital eccentricity with aphelions and perihelions, and orbital acceleration/deceleration variables to deal with. That's way too much for my poor brain.
In fig 12, using a scale to get my verticals accurate, I place your red dots at 1654, 1833 and 2013. Thats 179 and 180 years, not 172 years. Mistake?, or correct for the AMP positioning, but AMP not consistent with U/N conjunction?
The "repeating pattern" is highest max solar velocity just before a red dot and min bottom just after a red dot. Both are succesively higher on a straight line, with top and bottom lines having very nearly the same slope. Strange. It would be interesting to see this pattern over the 3000 years you have covered.
Queries and/or housekeeping
Most figures have the AM scale marked as 5.0 at the bottom, rather than 0.5.
Fig 17 has AM spikes about 9 years bottom to bottom. The quasi sinusoidal curves of other figs are 20 years. Sunspot cycles look closer to 10 years than to 11 in Fig 17.
In the formula, what are x,y and z?
Cheers, Murray

The simple answer is Jose and everybody who uses his cycle is wrong.

There is no 178-9 year cycle. Every Uranus/Neptune conjunction has Jupiter and Saturn in a different position, and this is what governs grand minima and the shape of the Holocene isotope record.

Use this link to see for yourself http://math-ed.com/Resources/GIS/Geometry_In_Space/java1/Temp/TLVisPOrbit.html

Use 1992 and 1821 and look at the different positions of J & S. J & S are not moving back into the same position which makes a fixed predictable cycle impossible, but we do see periods of time like the LIA where the positions are favorable for strong grand minima but we now are seeing that strength diminish as the U/N precession moves on. There will be a point in time where the major 4 planets return to the exact positions and using the above link a 27 U/N cycle or 4628 yrs does come very close to a return, but not quite and the software may be inaccurate over longer periods., we only have 6000 years of fairly reliable data which may not be enough. Use 1821 as a starting point, draw the angles on a piece of paper, go back in 171.4 yr steps and see if the pattern repeats (also look 1306 & -3321). I have done the work some time ago, look at this graph http://www.landscheidt.info/images/c14nujs1.jpg. Years 1472 and -3155 which are apart by 4628 yrs show similar planet angles and also fairly similar solar activity, but they are still different. The planet orbits are perturbed by their own gravity and never return exactly to the same position, this is why the Holocene isotope record does not have a strict repeating pattern. I will update this graph to make this point.
Hi again Geoff,
I realized after I wrote the last message that I am not seeing solar activity, but rather some kind of phase incoherence and recovery in the angular momentum, to which the sun evidently responds given the associated warming. So, why does the angular momentum go through a phase change of some kind?
Cheers, Murray

Ok Geoff, I hear you, - but
There are some strange regularities, with some irregularity
Starting with Fig 1, and your high peak at 2162 and counting backwards to previous high peaks with the same grid relationship, we find peaks that meet the criteria at 100 year, 40 year and 40 year intervals and this pattern holds clearly in successive near 180 year intervals all the way back to 1624, actually very close to 179 year periods. Then we have to drop to Fig 8 where we have lost our grid, so things get a little more difficult. However going back from 1624 calls for a 100,40,40 sequence for top peaks, and that is what we have. This pattern then holds very clearly all the way back to 908 at the end of Fig 8. We are still at 179 year periods.
We then drop to your extra AM curves. About 1166 to 908 is not quite as clear, but still OK. The sequence then holds with pretty clear peaks all the way down to 50 AD, after which it seems to give out.
However, back up from the top peak at near 130 AD to the bottom peak at about 165 AD (we lose 40 years minus half a cycle) and the bottom peaks resume the 40,40,100 sequence. (A 100 year period has become a 60 year period plus 1/2 cycle). We have a transition overlap from 165 to 50 AD where both top and bottom peaks work, but out of phase. From 165 AD to 810 BC the sequence continues nicely and then we have another 40 years minus half a cycle lost, a shift back to the top peaks, and an overlap from 870 to 990 BC.
The 2 transitions are very nearly 1040 years apart, (the famous 1000 year cycle) and correspond with warm periods. A similar transition at 1200 AD doesn't show up, but the warm period does. The sun seems to have a 100 or so year spasm at about 1000 year intervals, that results in terrestrial warming. Periods of very high sunspots, rather than low sunspots? (Next time about cycle 42?)
The 179 year cycle is the Jose cycle, that you find to be nearer 172 years. From 2160 AD to 1140 BC is 3300 years. 19 cycles of 178.7 years is 3395 years. So we have lost about 95 years during 3 solar spasms. 19 cycles of 172 years is 3268 years, but we don't seem to have gained anything from irregularities. I would say that for the last 3000 years the Jose cycle is pretty accurate.
You know how to model planetary cycles and display conjunctions etc. I don't. So can you address a couple of questions?
- What splits a Jose cycle into the 100,40,40 year periods?
- What additional planet(s) get into the act at about a 1000 year interval (every 6th Uranus/Neptune conjunction?, or every 6th Jose cycle?) to cause a solar spasm?
I agree that nature does not follow exact patterns, but planetary orbital periods are very close to exact over periods of several thousand years, so things like AM will repeat cycle periods pretty closely. I assume that the reason that individual periods vary in length and magnitude is the influence of the planets other than Uranus and Neptune, but they average out over long periods of several cycles. I would guess that solar spasms can occur when forces get too far out of phase on the departing portion of near alignments and end when the forces get pulled back into phase on the approaching portion, most of one cycle of something later. The duration of the spasm can vary depending on the interior state of the sun, which will probably never be the same from one spasm to the next, and maybe now and then the sun is in such a strong internal regularity that it escapes the spasm altogether, successfully riding out the phase problem. (Phase catastrophe??)
Best regards,

Murray, its good to see your interest in this area but I suspect it will not pan out to a regular pattern. The only regular pattern is the Uranus Neptune conjunction every 171.4 years...period.

grand minima events can happen either side of this conjunction and the planet positions which change every time determine this. Also even if the disturbance is strong it can be thwarted as done in 1830, so nothing will follow a clear pattern. Dont get confused with AMP events and grand minima, they dont always mean grand minima as seen in 1970 because of weak strength. If you look at the last grand minimum it is 210 years away.

Have a look at the last graph in the addition information in my paper, you will see a transition period before the 1000AD where the type b AMP events rule, notice how the weak AMP events spread out with much great occurrence because of the many partial line ups, during these times there will be no regular patterns as you have outlined, the carbon 14 record also shows this.

Nature will not follow straight lines or exact patterns, its about understanding the root causes.

I am currently looking at some new AM graphs derived from planetary AM as well as Jupiter distance from SSB and Sun difference that is highlighting some extra AMP type events not shown on the solar AM charts. They might give a clue to the sporer question.


Hi Geoff,
Just a few other observations for what it's worth. Using the extended set of AM cycles.
Approx -1000 to -100 we have disturbances on the bottom or the downslope.
Approx -100 to +100 we have a transition
Approx +100 to 1100 we have disturbances on the top or on the upslope.
Approx 1100 to 1200 we have a transition,
After 1200 to now ( to 2100+??) we have disturbances on the bottom or the downslope.
What are the drivers of an approximately 1000 year period?
Transitions linked to Roman and Medieval warmings? And next warm peak?

Now lets count from the top of a peak that leads to a disturbance, rounding to nearest 10 for simplicity.
Wolf to Sporer 1280 to 1420, - 140 years, 11 cycles
!280 to 1320 - 40 years from first to second disturbance.
1320 to 1420 - 100 years to next GM start

Maunder to Dalton 1640 to 1780, - 140 years, 11 cycles
1640 to 1680 - 40 years from first to second disturbance.
1680 to 1780 - 100 years to next GM start

Sporer to Maunder 1420 to 1640, - 220 years, 20 cycles
!420 to 1460 - 40 years from green arrowed GM start to second disturbance
1460 to 1600 - 140 years to next disturbance
1600 to 1640 - 40 years to next GM start
You have a green arrow and question mark for the start of the Sporer near 1420 that doesn't have a disturbance. I am going with your green arrow.

Dalton to cycle 24 1780 to 2010 - 230 years, 20 cycles
1780 - 1820 - 40 years from first to second disturbance
1820 to 1960 - 140 years to next disturbance
1960 to 2000 - 40 years to next GM start (11 years, 1 cycle lost in rounding from 1280 to 2010)

Note that the 140 year period from 1820 to 1960 starts and ends with a disturbance that doesn't lead to a GM, but is coincident with a warming.
How about 1460 to 1600 - were there 2 warmings then also?

Note the 140 year periods that keep showing up. Is there a driver?

The 13/20 cycle period in years splits 40,100,40,140,40 and then starts over again 40,100,40,140,40. (Or 140,40, 140,40,140,40,140,40 - with every second 140 bounded by 2 warmings??)

Seems like too many very close regularities to be non significant. There is something going on besides your 172 year cycle. Can some of the other "gifted amateurs" contribute?

Cheers, Murray

To: geoff s (gs_qad@hotmail.com)
One other thing - since you mention PDO. I'm reaching way back now, but if memory serves Landscheidt's phase reversals involved a negative peak of something coniciding with a PDO before the reversal, and a positive peak coinciding with a PDO after the reversal, or vice-versa. Murray

I've had a few minutes to look at some of your material and can make a couple of observations. First, I have based my GM timing using the start, not the center. As the length of GM is variable, at least in the current period the start can be determined more accurately. Picking the center for eg the Sporer can easily give both your 172 years and my 13/20 cycles. Multiple disturbances stretch a GM, keeping what is cool -cool, but not driving things cooler, especially evident for the Maunder, and probably for the Sporer.
From fig 1, all of the GM I have start on a downslope of the AM, going to a disturbance. Even on the Wolf you get a sharp downslope for the 10Be at 1280, corresponding with an AM for fig 4.
On Fig 7 I can't make the dates line up well with Fig 4, so I don't know what to think. From your curves 1830-1840 should have been a cooling, but was a warming instead, - another phase reversal like for 1980??.
Your GM projections for now and for 2150 line up exactly with my 13/20 cycle projection.
Seems to me like we do not have a major inconsistancy, but that there is at least one additional factor in play. Without going back and reviewing things from long ago, maybe that factor is the Landscheidt phase reversal, or maybe it is the inner planets providing some effect.
Your AM charts seem to align well with the 13/20 cycle alternation, with a sharp decrease in AM at the beginning of every GM, and the C14 dating isn't accurate enough to invalidate corresponding coolings.

Hi Murray, I also have never understood Landscheidt's phase reversals. I put it down to his peaks not matching and needing a method to re align two beats that arnt quite in sequence. His work is very different to my own and I take very little from Landscheidt, but he was on the right track. I think there are two concepts to follow when talking of climate effects, one is a slowing Sun which has a reduction in TSI (small) but more importantly a reduced EUV output which is a now seen as a major climate driver. Couple this with the PDO phases that look to keep in sync with Jupiter and Saturn and you have all that is needed to explain the temp graph. The key is to look for the AM disturbance or AMP events. There is one now and also at 1970 which also coincided with a neg PDO, i expect the same occurred during the Dalton previously.

Thanks Geoff. Now I have it. That will take considerable study and cogitation for me to comprehend. My first reaction comes from your curve of solar vs planetary AM. the deep plunge from ca 1940 to 1948 corresponds with a temperature plunge delayed a few years. The next deep plunge ca 1983 -1989 corresponds to a strong warming, even (or maybe especially) with brief delay. If memory serves Landscheidt had one of his famous phase reversals in the mid '70s, which could be an explanation. However I have never understood the phase reversals, either what causes them, or how they are manifested. What is the significance of a phase reversal? The phase of what is reversed? Why would a steep drop in AM generate terrestrial cooling one time and a virtually identical drop generate warming the next time? That truly mystifies me. Can you place other Landscheidt phase reversals on your curves, and if yes how are they manifested? There does seem to be a hint of mirror imaging in your curve going each way from ca 1970, but I think 1970 is before Landscheidt's phase reversal. Would near mirror imaging result from approaching, near conjunctions shifting to departing near conjunctions?

Sorry for all the questions. I am not expecting answers, but I would appreciate your response to the bolded bit.

Thanks again for the reply.
I do not have the technical ability to "provide the detail". My strength? is noticing odd relationships. The 13 and 20 cycle periods is an odd relationship that has held up since the Oort (20, 13, 20, 13, 20), with the current grand minimum right on time. If that repetition continued back in time we would have had a DGM about 910-920, an SGM about 700 and a DGM about 550, the latter corresponding with the dark ages cold period. Were there grand minima about 910, 700, 550, or don't we know, or was the last set of 5 grand minima just a fluke?

"Remember every 172 yrs there are around 3 chances to form this position, during
events like the sporer all 3 are used, the maunder 2, the dalton used 1.5 and the current minimum will use only one."
I don't understand this statement . Can you point me to an illustration or clearer description?

Any comments about the future?

From: gs_qad@hotmail.com
To: murrayv@msn.com
Subject: RE: Climate and Solar Regularities and Global Cooling.docx
Date: Sat, 6 Nov 2010 09:38:03 +1100

Thanks Murray, an interesting read. Two parts stand out for me.

You asked the question do the 13 and 20 cycle periods stand out in the planetary records, that would be up to you to provide the detail, but I would say definitely not.
The planets change their postitons every 178 yrs according to Jose, he only looked back a few hundred yrs as you have done, but looking back further you will see the planets repeat their pattern
over varying timescales that centre around the Uranus/Neptune conjunction of about 172 yrs. The little ice age was a freak period, the 13/20 cycle will fall down when looking over
the Holocene record.

You answered your own question when you correctly described the suns motion around the SSB, it is tied to the planet positions of the big 4 and relies on U/N together along with a good
alignment of J/S to force a grand minimum. This changes every 172 yrs and will not follow a simple 13/20 rule. Remember every 172 yrs there are around 3 chances to form this position, during
events like the sporer all 3 are used, the maunder 2, the dalton used 1.5 and the current minimum will use only one. This randomness in the cycle makes it impossible to follow a close pattern and is the reason
why no one has found it. The Devries cycle of around 200 years is more like an average and falls down totally during the LIA but looks reasonable when looking at the long term isotope record.

Geoff Sharp.
Geoff, thanks for responding.
I'm still learning my way around this web sharing. Also I updated and reposted it after my first message to you. I think the link will work now.
It sure looks to me like there is a clear periodicity of 13 and 20 sunspot cycles between grand minima. Maybe people have looked for a consistent cycle rather than alternating cycle lengths.

From: gs_qad@hotmail.com
To: murrayv@msn.com
Subject: RE: [Website Feedback] Grand minima
Date: Fri, 5 Nov 2010 09:23:21 +1100

Hi Murray, the link you provided didn't work.

Grand minima follow a rough pattern but it can not be nailed down by specific solar cycles. This is what has confused all
those that have tried to use a repeating pattern or look for a trend in isotope records. What causes solar slowdown
comes along usually in 3 hits each 172 yrs (centre), because of the timing of the planets each occurrence is different. We
are seeing that right now, SC20 was weak, now is quiet strong and the third hit is missing this time around. This makes it
impossible to use a simple cyclic method.

Murray Duffin sent a message using the contact form at
> http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=contact.
> Geoff, please see my little opus at
> https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B2il0OKRz_AwYTc1NTI1M2MtODk2NC00M2IyLTljMGItZWVjZjhhY2E5NTRi&hl=en
> . the timing of grand minima in the chart you present on the first page
> correspond exactly to my observation. With the Oort at 1060, the grand minima
> repeat at intervals of 13 and 20 sunspot cycles, with the 20 cycle ones
> giving stronger climate response - my DGM and SGM. With the 13 and 20 cycle
> intervals giving exactly a golden proportion, I feel the observation is
> worthy of Landscheidt. I have never before seen this observation from anyone,
> and it seems very significant. Can I put my name to the present DGM? Murray
> PS I have sent the link to my opus to Ian Wilson also as it ties into some
> of his work. I sure would like to see it put up on someones blog, preferably
> WUWT which has the largest audience, but I don't know how to get that done.

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